PBA Philippine Cup Semifinals: Game 4 predictions and betting odds for July 2, 2025

The 2025 PBA Philippine Cup semifinals are delivering all the thrills, and July 2nd is set to be another explosive day at the Mall of Asia Arena. 

Both best-of-seven series currently stand at 2-1, meaning Game 4 presents a pivotal opportunity for teams to either establish a commanding lead or draw level. With the stakes sky-high, let’s dive into the predictions and a look at the available betting odds.

Game 1: Barangay Ginebra San Miguel vs. San Miguel Beermen (5:00 PM)

Series Standing: San Miguel leads 2-1

Recap of Game 3: San Miguel Beermen showcased their championship mettle in Game 3, securing a decisive 100-90 victory over Barangay Ginebra. After Ginebra had stolen Game 2 with a late surge, the Beermen, powered by their deep and talented roster, reasserted their dominance to take a 2-1 series lead. RJ Abarrientos led Ginebra with 24 points, but San Miguel’s balanced attack, with Don Trollano leading the way with 22 points, proved superior.

Key Factors & Analysis:

• San Miguel’s Veteran Core: The Beermen’s core of June Mar Fajardo, CJ Perez, and Marcio Lassiter, complemented by the scoring of Don Trollano and Jericho Cruz, provides a consistent and potent offense. Fajardo’s presence inside continues to be a game-changer, even if not at 100%.
• Ginebra’s Resilience and Crowd Support: Ginebra thrives on adversity and the passionate backing of their “Barangay” faithful. Their ability to make dramatic comebacks is legendary, and they will be desperate to even the series. Scottie Thompson and Christian Standhardinger will need to elevate their play to match San Miguel’s firepower.
• Tactical Adjustments: Coach Leo Austria for San Miguel and Coach Tim Cone for Ginebra are two of the best in the league. Expect nuanced adjustments to defensive schemes and offensive sets as they look to exploit weaknesses.

Betting Odds (Example from a generic sports book, odds may vary):

• San Miguel Beermen: -167 (implied probability: 62.5%)
• Barangay Ginebra San Miguel: +119 (implied probability: 45.7%)
• Spread: San Miguel -3.5 / Ginebra +3.5 (Odds for these usually around 1.83 – 1.95)
• Total Points (Over/Under): 184.5 (Odds typically around 1.83 for Over/Under)

Prediction: San Miguel appears to have found their stride after the Game 2 hiccup. Their offensive variety and the sheer depth of their talent make them incredibly tough to stop. While Ginebra will put up a strong fight, the Beermen’s momentum and veteran composure are likely to carry them to a commanding 3-1 lead.

Predicted Winner: San Miguel Beermen

Game 2: Rain or Shine Elasto Painters vs. TNT Tropang Giga (7:30 PM)

Series Standing: TNT leads 2-1

Recap of Game 3: Rain or Shine delivered a statement victory in Game 3, routing TNT Tropang Giga 107-86. The Elasto Painters, spearheaded by the unexpected brilliance of Anton Asistio (career-high 24 points, including two crucial “four-point” plays), avoided falling into a 0-3 hole. This dominant performance injected new life into their series. TNT struggled, particularly with the absence of star RR Pogoy (hamstring).

Key Factors & Analysis:

• Rain or Shine’s Renewed Confidence: The Game 3 win was a massive morale booster for the Elasto Painters. Anton Asistio’s emergence provides a significant offensive weapon, taking pressure off Caelan Tiongson and Adrian Nocum. Coach Yeng Guiao will have his team playing with heightened aggression.
• TNT’s Adjustment Without Pogoy: The absence of RR Pogoy is a considerable blow to TNT’s offensive firepower. Calvin Oftana led them with 16 points in Game 3, but they lacked consistent secondary scoring. Mikey Williams and Kelly Williams will need to step up considerably to compensate.
• Battle of Adjustments: Coach Guiao’s strategic mind will be working overtime to maintain Rain or Shine’s offensive flow and defensive intensity. TNT, under Coach Jojo Lastimosa, will undoubtedly implement new strategies to counter Rain or Shine’s surge and find ways to generate easier scores.

Betting Odds (Example from a generic sports book, odds may vary):

• TNT Tropang Giga: -150 (implied probability: 60.0%)
• Rain or Shine Elasto Painters: +110 (implied probability: 47.6%)
• Spread: TNT -2.5 / Rain or Shine +2.5 (Odds for these usually around 1.83 – 1.95)
• Total Points (Over/Under): 188.5 (Odds typically around 1.83 for Over/Under)

Prediction: Rain or Shine’s Game 3 victory was more than just a win; it was a psychological turning point. With Asistio’s breakout and the team playing with a renewed sense of purpose, they have the belief that they can level the series. While TNT is a strong team, Pogoy’s absence creates a significant void. Rain or Shine’s momentum, combined with Guiao’s tactical expertise, could see them force a 2-2 tie.

Predicted Winner: Rain or Shine Elasto Painters

#PBASeason49 PhilCup @arenaplusph SEMIS Game 4 Wednesday – July 2 schedule at SM MOA Arena brought to us by @PocariSweatPH

5:00 PM
BARANGAY GINEBRA San Miguel (2) vs. SAN MIGUEL Beermen (1)

7:30 PM
RAIN OR SHINE Elastopainters (1) vs. TNT Tropang 5G (2)#PBAAngatAngLaban pic.twitter.com/dXYuyT7gT8

— PBA (@pbaconnect) June 30, 2025

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