NBA Cup predictions: Can the Thunder win it all?

The NBA Cup has arrived with its final four teams: San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, New York Knicks, and Orlando Magic. To be frank, the Thunder and the Knicks would be the most predictable Finals matchup. However, the NBA Cup, upsets do happen, and either the Spurs or Magic can become upset kings en route to the NBA Cup title.

Ranking these four teams is no easy feat, considering the talent that comprises each one, which can beat any other team in the league on any given day. Yet with the semifinal matchups now in place. We can get a sense of how strong each team is compared to its opponents.

Only four teams remain.

Who will advance to the @emirates NBA Cup Championship? pic.twitter.com/JWFsOyfCoB

— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) December 11, 2025

Eastern Conference Semifinal – Orlando Magic vs New York Knicks

The most competitive semifinal. The Magic and Knicks are more similar than fans think. Guards that can dictate the offensive tempo, lethal post scorers, and stretch bigs that allow for more flexible offense. 

The Magic won the first two meetings, courtesy of Franz Wagner’s 65 points across the two games. In their third game, however, the Knicks tightened their defense and grabbed the win in the third game. One little tidbit about their third meeting is that Wagner only played seven minutes. This Sunday, Wagner will not play due to a knee injury, severely impacting the potential of Orlando’s offense. Which will ultimately be what dooms them.

Prediction: New York Knicks

Western Conference semifinal – Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs might not be able to see Victor Wembanyama on the court any time soon, and it’s a shame. A Wemby vs Chet Holmgren matchup in one of the regular season’s most pivotal games could’ve been a blockbuster. Instead, the Spurs are left to rely on their star guards to take down what could be one of the most dominant teams in NBA history.

One thing’s for sure: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be at the forefront of the Thunder’s onslaught alongside Chet Holmgren and Jaylen Williams. As fun as it is to imagine the up-and-coming Spurs taking down the defending champions to get one step closer to NBA Cup glory, reality often strikes.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder

Finals

That brings us to the most predictable yet inevitable Finals matchup between the Thunder and the Knicks. If it happens, it will be the first time these two teams meet this season, and potentially wouldn’t be the last, considering these two teams are among the many analysts’ and fans’ picks to win their respective conferences.

As dominant as the Thunder are this season, New York’s flexibility in dishing out passing lanes and open threes could pose a problem. The Knicks, though not completely, could be seen as a similar team to that of the Indiana Pacers team that took the Thunder to seven games in the Finals last year. 

If the Knicks were to have a chance, Karl Anthony-Towns and Jalen Brunson must be their most efficient selves, and OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges at their fiercest. There is a reason that Oklahoma City has only lost once this season, and it’s because of the harmony found on both ends. Again, it’s fun to imagine the Thunder being beaten – After all, out of everyone in the final four, the Knicks have the best chance at dealing the Thunder their second loss of the season – but SGA will be SGA, their defense will be among the best, and the Thunder will continue to strike until something calamitous happens.

Predictions: The Oklahoma City Thunder 

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