PBA Finals: TNT Tropang 5G vs. San Miguel Beermen — Game 4 Preview, Predictions & Betting Odds

Three games into the PBA Finals, the series has settled into its identity: TNT Tropang 5G brings pace, balance, and shooting — San Miguel Beermen bring weight, experience, and inevitability.

Game 4 now sits at a turning point.

With San Miguel holding a 2–1 edge, TNT faces a familiar Finals question: can depth and movement outlast championship muscle, or will the Beermen tighten their grip with another grind-it-out win? 

Series standing: San Miguel leads 2–1

How the Series Has Shifted

After TNT’s composed 96-91 Game 1 win, San Miguel responded the way dynasties do — by slowing everything down.

Games 2 and 3 tilted toward half-court battles, longer possessions, and bruising interior play. June Mar Fajardo has remained the series’ gravitational force, consistently drawing double teams and forcing TNT into difficult defensive choices. Each adjustment has pulled the Finals further away from TNT’s preferred tempo.

Yet TNT has never looked out of place.

Their ability to score by committee continues to keep them within striking distance every night. Calvin Oftana’s perimeter pressure, Jordan Heading’s shot-making, and the stabilizing presence of Kelly Williams have prevented San Miguel from fully dictating terms — even in losses.

Game 3, in particular, showed how thin the margins are. One or two empty possessions late, one defensive rotation missed, and the outcome flips. CJ Perez came up big during crunch time scoring 17 points in the fourth frame alone to lead the Beermen past the Tropang 5G. 

Game 4 Storylines

TNT: Win the Pace Battle

TNT’s clearest path remains tempo. When they push the ball, move it side-to-side, and force San Miguel’s bigs into space, the Beermen become vulnerable. Expect TNT to emphasize early offense and quick decisions before San Miguel’s defense can set.

Late-game execution, however, must improve. Close losses have exposed how unforgiving Finals possessions become in the final minutes.

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RESBAK o TULOY ANG ATTACK!#PBA50PhilCupFinalsG4 WEDNESDAY – January 28 – 7:30 PM at SM Mall of Asia Arena schedule brought to us by Pocari Sweat (Philippines)

SAN MIGUEL Beermen (2) vs. TNT Tropang 5G (1)#PBA50 #PBA50LID pic.twitter.com/pmH4TQ5zzr

— PBA (@pbaconnect) January 28, 2026

San Miguel: Squeeze the Air Out

Up 2–1, the Beermen will look to do what they do best — shorten the game. Expect deliberate half-court sets, heavy inside touches for Fajardo, and defensive pressure aimed at wearing down TNT’s secondary scorers.

If San Miguel controls the rebounding battle and limits transition chances, they can push TNT to the edge of the series.

Key Matchups

Depth vs. dominance

TNT’s balanced scoring versus San Miguel’s reliance on elite top-end production — a contrast that has defined all three games.

Crunch-time execution

San Miguel has been sharper late. TNT needs cleaner reads and fewer forced shots when possessions tighten.

Interior control
Fajardo’s presence continues to tilt the floor. TNT’s rotating bigs must stay disciplined without overhelping on shooters.

Betting Odds (Approximate)

Moneyline

• San Miguel Beermen: ~1.65

   

• TNT Tropang 5G: ~2.15

   

Point Spread

• San Miguel –3.5 (~1.90)

   

• TNT +3.5 (~1.92)

   

Total (Over/Under)

• Over 189.5 (~1.91)

   

• Under 189.5 (~1.91)

   

Prediction

San Miguel Beermen

With momentum and series control on their side, San Miguel enters Game 4 in position to press its advantage. Their ability to dictate pace, dominate the interior, and execute late has been the difference — and those edges tend to grow as a Finals series wears on.

Expect another physical contest, with San Miguel doing just enough in the closing minutes to stay in command.

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