PBA Finals: TNT Tropang 5G vs. San Miguel Beermen — Game 1 Preview, Predictions & Betting Odds

After another dramatic playoff run through the semis, the PBA Season 50 Philippine Cup Finals are set to tip off with TNT Tropang 5G going head-to-head with the San Miguel Beermen in what promises to be a compelling rematch of one of the league’s modern all-Filipino classics.

Preview

These are two of the league’s most consistent big-stage teams. TNT enters this series riding a blend of offensive firepower and resilient comeback performances — highlighted by their Game 5 win that kept their Grand Slam hopes alive last season — and their ability to stretch the floor with elite perimeter shooting that ranked among the league’s best during the Philippine Cup slate.

TNT’s spacing and conversion from beyond the arc (leading the conference in makes and efficiency) remains a core strength they’ll lean on to counter San Miguel’s interior focus.

San Miguel’s blueprint is more traditional but effective. The Beermen consistently lead the league in scoring close to the basket and use their size, physicality, and elite post presence to dictate pace. June Mar Fajardo — coming off a shoulder issue but steadily trending toward full effectiveness — anchors San Miguel’s paint dominance, while the team’s defense ranks among the better units at limiting three-point efficiency. 

San Miguel also has CJ Perez who is known to get into solo scoring runs, previously scoring 41 points in the Game 6 win against Ginebra, expect the TNT defense to try and limit his scoring. 

Both teams come in battle-tested: San Miguel closed out a tough semifinal against Barangay Ginebra, leaning on veteran execution and depth in clutch moments, while TNT overcame adversity to reach the finals despite injuries and rotation challenges down the stretch.

TNT’s backcourt depth is a storyline to watch. With RR Pogoy who is the third best scorer of the team sidelined early during the semifinals due to hamstring woes, TNT’s guard rotation is thinner, placing additional scoring burdens on players such as Rey Nambatac, Calvin Oftana and Jordan Heading. San Miguel, meanwhile, has managed its own health concerns but retains a more established rotation built around Fajardo and high-usage wings.

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PBA schedule | January 21 | Ynares Center Antipolo

FINALS GAME 1
TNT vs San Miguel
7:30 p.m.
One Sports YouTube | Pilipinas Live
PBA Rush | RPTV#PBA50 #PBA50LIDhttps://t.co/IU28VccTpo

— One Sports (@OneSportsPHL) January 20, 2026

Matchup 

• TNT’s perimeter attack vs. San Miguel’s three-point defense: TNT’s league-leading three-point volume and accuracy will test San Miguel’s ability to close out on shooters — a tactical chess match that could define Game 1.

   

• Fajardo’s impact inside: Controlling the interior is key, and Fajardo’s presence draws double teams that create open looks for shooters like Marcio Lassiter and Jericho Cruz.

   

• Health and depth: With key TNT guards injured, bench contributions and rotations will matter more than ever in this early Finals game.

   

Sportsbook Odds 

Moneyline

• San Miguel Beermen: ~1.64

   

• TNT Tropang 5G: ~2.20

   

Point Spread

• San Miguel Beermen –3 (~1.87)

   

• TNT Tropang 5G +3 (~1.97)

   

Total (Over/Under)

• Over 196 (~1.90)

   

• Under 196 (~1.92)

   

Prediction

San Miguel Beermen

San Miguel’s balanced attack, playoff discipline, and interior strength give them a slight edge to take control early in this series. Expect them to impose their pace inside and make TNT work for quality looks — especially if Memphis Fajardo plays with more comfort than in the semifinals.

Best Bet

San Miguel Beermen –3

San Miguel’s mix of experience and inside dominance is more likely to produce a clean win in Game 1, especially with TNT managing key absences.

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